FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Upgrade strategy for a flight 9 months away
Old Jan 19, 2019, 2:53 pm
  #4  
findark
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: MSP
Programs: DL PM, UA Gold, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found
Posts: 14,425
Originally Posted by azfanboy
1) Is it better to wait for PZ availability? If PZ does open up after I buy the tickets do I get upgraded automatically?
I think there are two questions really embedded here:

Is it better to book a confirmed confirmed upgrade, or do I have a good chance waitlisting early? The former, a million times the former. W/V fares do not change significantly over time, so you have almost nothing to lose waiting and monitoring inventory over the next six months. However, if you must fly on a specific date and routing, then this is not really helpful. The realistic answer in this case is that you will not get upgraded.

For a given flight, do I have a chance of being "skipped" by someone who snags open PZ space later? You are not supposed to -- the majority of the time you will automatically be cleared into PZ when it opens, according to the waitlist priority. There is sometimes a several hour window where someone could "steal" the upgrade, but it is exceedingly rare for this to be taken advantage of many months out, and you yourself can take the space manually if you see it, so waitlisting the upgrade is the strictly better approach.

Originally Posted by azfanboy
2) Will it make a material difference to buy upto Q in terms of upgrade availability? Approximately $400 more per ticket.
No.

Originally Posted by azfanboy
3) how much of a factor is buying this early? Should I wait for the fare to fall into the W bucket.
Almost nil. The window where only some 1Ks on Q/V/W fares clear upgrades is extremely small. The vast majority of the time, either PZ space will float, meaning the entire upgrade list has been run regardless of status, or (more common) nobody will get upgrades except maybe a couple of GS at the gate, to take the no-show's seats.
findark is online now