Data point:
AA61 DFW-NRT on 1 Feb
My wife and I were upgraded on 13 Jan using Miles+Copy from PE. Bought the ticket early September and were waitlisted since.
Didn't get an EF alert, either. Only noticed when I refreshed our trip in the app and saw we did not have assigned seats.
I'm EXP with about 20K rolling EQD this time of year.