Back in the first decade of the century I redeemed to take the family to Oz three times in business. That era is over. Either the seats aren't available, or the "price" would be more than a million miles per trip. If anyone still thinks they can earn miles flying a modest number of paid trips for two or three years, then easily end up in J or F to Australia, they are kidding themselves; the airlines tease great things when hawking credit cards with big bonuses, but the big aspirational redemptions are actually rare and take hard work and compromise.

People who fly a very high number of paid premium trips, usually using OPM, can earn a flood of miles that will get them to the Seychelles, stretched out in 2A, clutching Champagne. For most of the rest of us today's miles accumulation rate means an occasional free segment to visit Mom in the nursing home in Syracuse in January, saving ourselves $150 or $200. It is still not entirely pointless to collect miles, but the average flyer should think of them as CVS reward points -- a minor spiff that one day will get you $2 off a bottle of Listerine, not a new smart TV.

The FF programs were conceived to change your behavior and reward your loyalty. Now they are just profit engines. At this (waning) stage of the programs, the average flyer will often find it pointless to modify his/her behavior to show loyalty to an airline. They spend more in the process, pursuing evanescent rewards, than the rewards turn out to be worth.