Had an interesting conversation a few months back who was one of the initial team that started creditcards.com and is still very active in the banking CC rewards space. High credit score/high use customers are still incredibly valuable to the banks and they're going to continue to target them. It's the second prong of this that I think will end up being hit much harder--the use side. To an extent this is already being done--min spends are now in the 3-4K range while a few years ago $500 spends were more common. My guess is that the same pot of money for rewards will end up being allocated to sign up bonuses that are more like the Chase Marriott 10:1 up to 120K points over a 12 month period from last year and/or to one like I got on my Amex Biz Rewards Gold in Q4 2018 of 50K Membership Rewards points for 10K in spend over 3 months. On offers like these, even if they re being "gamed", the swipe fees are probably worth it to the banks.