Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave

Yes, I strongly suspect that too, had you arrived later then I suspect he would not have been flying on the same aircraft as the rest of your group. In a way that's no secret and that features in some of the IDB threads: offloads overwhelmingly come from those without seats, and those with status, even Bronze, will typrically have specific seats reserved (unless booked during that 2 day period you mentioned.....) and pre-paying for a seat goes a long way too. The only thing to add, though, is that for example if another family group couldn't travel (e.g, a kid goes sick) and thus rebooks during OLCI, then all of a sudden seats become available. And no-shows come from all sorts of other factors, so seats can and do become available 1 hour from departure. However TPA is a family annual holiday resort more than most, so plans typically don't change.

Incidentally if he had an onward connection, particularly if it involved another airline such as Loganair or Aer Lingus, then that would have saved him, they are loathed to IDB people with on carriage bookings due to the ticketing complexities at the TPA end.