Originally Posted by
cblaisd
I just don't consider or make these sort of fine calculations. If it's a month in which cash flow is more tight, I'll use points (or a combination). If it's a flush month, I'll use cash. Or if it's a very cheap rate (winter weekend rates at Denver Tech Center hotels, e.g.) but an expensive points rate, I'll pay cash. If the decision is close, I'll think about what the current bonus is, maybe.
I don't know if others are like me in these regards

I would think along similar lines, and although I have a vague idea of value, wouldn't be able to define it to the nearest $0.0005!
If Hilton have a good promotion that will only trigger with paid stays (e.g. the recent 2500 Miles & More one), that might swing the balance more towards paid stays.