Originally Posted by
jsloan
"Selling upgrades" is often blamed for low instrument clearance, but the truth is that the biggest factor is that the airlines have figured out how to price first class attractively.
And this is the summary in a nutshell. AA created the first mileage program in 1981, primarily in response to deregulation in 1978. Fares were essentially the same no matter who you flew (anyone recall APEX fares?), and airlines were seen as all the same. I can recall intentionally flying different airlines out and back, just for the heck of it as it made no difference in the fare. More importantly, midday load factors were 60 or 70%, leaving lots of open seats. Mileage programs were a free way to lock in passengers without adding costs.
Fast forward to 2018. The airlines have figured out how to segment the market such that they can fill every seat at the maximum revenue. Load factors are well over 90% and good luck trying to find less than 100% on midday flights. Loyalty programs are meaningless as they aren't interested in what you spent yesterday. The only thing that counts is revenue today. If they can generate $1 of hard cash at the gate, they will. Fortress hubs and choice limited to 3 or 4 airlines at best make it hard to switch carriers, and for every passenger that switches, they are likely to get one moving in from another airline.
It's another War Games situation - the only way to win is not to play the game.