Right, but the OP was over $51K which I think has made a material difference historically. I'm ending this year at $46K and a similar CPM and I think his extra ~$5K+ takes him to a high probability bet versus my totally-on-the-fence-ness. Especially given his solid y-o-y trajectory.
I guess my reading comprehension needs help
The only total number I saw was $38k which I attributed to the OP. If >$50k I would agree odds are much better.