Originally Posted by lucius

Hmmm...I'm not so sure.

I think American's major beef is that United beat them to the punch. Both airlines announced that they wanted to serve ORD-Shanghai, but American was locked out of the most recent awards by the terms of the US-China treaty. United got the route authority it wanted all along. I doubt they see the DOT's restrictions as limiting them at all. If anything, it's a strategic victory for United, since they effectively boxed American out of serving Shanghai or Beijing from Chicago.

What's more, American is not a lock to get the seven frequencies in the March 2005 award. While my bet is that the DOT will assign the frequencies to a new entrant, my guess is that Delta and Continental (and heck, maybe even Hawaiian) will apply for the frequencies as well.

At some point I'm sure American will get frequencies to China, and they may use those frequencies to start LAX-China services. However, I don't think that will affect United's decision to restart LAX-HKG service for two reasons.

One, Hong Kong route authority is negotiated separately from mainland China route authority (somebody please correct me if I'm wrong). The March 2005 frequencies are for mainland China service. If American did get those frequencies, it would be for service to Beijing, Shanghai or Guangzhou, not Hong Kong.

Two, along with everybody else, I assume that United will add another frequency to Hong Kong on or shortly after starting service to Saigon. My bet is that United is debating whether to restart LAX-HKG service or to add a 2nd flight from SFO. What makes me think that United will add a 2nd SFO flight has to do with cargo.

United talked a lot about the cargo opportunities in Vietnam. If they expect to generate a lot of the profit from the flight from cargo, then SFO may be the better bet. SFO is about 300 miles closer to Hong Kong than LA. All else being equal, they can fly more cargo from Hong Kong to SFO than to LA.

United stated that they dropped LAX-HKG because it was unprofitable (probably due to competition from Cathay). But that was without the extra passenger/cargo revenue from Saigon. If a lot of the Vietnam cargo will end up in or near LA, then restarting the service may make sense. Otherwise, expect to see another SFO-HKG flight.