It matters because one pattern indicates a cardholder who is indifferent to rewards, while the other indicates a cardholder who is motivated by rewards. Retention offers are not additional rewards for past spending. The algorithm predicts the probability that you will cancel, and what it will take to keep you as a customer. It doesn't matter if the algorithm is correct in an individual case, only if it increases retention within budget over a vast number of instances.
So, if you use the card regularly, you are likely to keep the card without retention bonus.
Therefore, they won't offer any bonus to you.