Originally Posted by
synthkeys
Since the miles revaluation in June, it seems upgrade availability has been reduced also. I frequently try for upgrade award for EWR/JFK - HKG. Since June, I've been waitlisted without clearing far more often for PE->J upgrades. My last flight back HKG-EWR on 9/30 didn't clear the waitlist, but I was able to use instant upgrade at the airport. I was planning a flight for the weekend of 10/20 EWR or JFK - HKG. MPC could not confirm any flight out of NY for that weekend ( I think there's a major expo going on in Guangzhou), so I was able to confirm CX865 on 10/22. Definitely not my first choice, but that was the only flight from NYC area in +-5 days that they were willing to confirm.
All anecdotal, but to me it seems less availability despite the promised 20% increase in award inventory. Instant upgrade is a viable option. Last time I tried in HKG, they had me wait until 1 hour before scheduled departure to confirm the seat, but I did get it.
This is exactly my experience on MEL-HKG recently. Fewer PE>J upgrade awards clearing ahead of time, but instant upgrade is often available an hour before departure. I guess they decided that by denying redemption upgrades when there are 5 or 6 seats left, they can sell those seats or use them for J pax changing flights, and if not then it's the same PE pax getting instant upgrades.
Last flight, I had the strange experience of failing to clear waitlist, being denied an instant upgrade an hour out, but then getting an op-up at the gate. That is truly last minute seat allocation. I can only guess that someone on a connection was delayed.