Originally Posted by LapLap

From direct experience, nearly every year since I’ve been taking a now 9 year child to see her grandfather in the Easter holidays, I wouldn’t say that early April is “Safe”.
Give it a 50% chance and don’t assume it will be fine.

Which is exactly why I was cataloguing the forecasts and pre-planning so keenly this year. Also important: be prepared to hit the ground running. That first day may be your last day (unless you aim to go somewhere like Matsumoto)