Although the crowd here are both revenue and redemption passengers, you correctly pointed out there is negligble effect on the former, so the effect is on the latter.

Supposedly in the post-22/6 world CX is getting a lot more aggressive releasing redemption seats and being far more price discriminatory by more aggressive use of Choice/Tailored (cut the fiction Choice is available, it's usually just Tailored).

This rule change means we based in HK are going to pay more for redemptions. But will we get more seats for the higher prices we will be paying? I am doubful although I am reluctant to take bets on this here (cos in an online forum I have no idea how to collect on winnings).

If the "global trend of liberalisation of fuel surcharges to enhance competition" is true, competition will result in no additional profit to airlines from the change in rule; however with our slot-restricted airport, I do not have confidence there will be no adverse change to passengers.