Originally Posted by
brunos
Indeed, way too early to tell.
And thanks for the link.
At this point models have "aims" going all over the place. But the UK results are worrying and some other models suggest the general direction of HK (not the US one).
Will better know in a week time.
I got so much destruction around me due to Mangkhut, that I worry even if very low probability.
I would say focus on ECMWF, which is recently the most accurate, and take note of GFS, too. The other models are generally not as well regarded. Please note though that these are not official forecasts, but computer models. Official forecasts by various agencies generally don't go beyond 120 hours, and at this point, these "subjective forecasts" (meaning there is meteorologist intervention based on experience and intuition and not completely based off computer models) are in good agreement:
TRAMI | Multi-Agency TC Forecast