I think it is a bit more hopeful for an upgrade if most E seats are empty soon before a flight, but too many Elites prefer non-Exit seats to actually use E-row occupancy as a sole predictor, IMO.

If anyone perfects a crystall-ball upgrade prediction method (better than the availability tool or the WAG method,) or you have documentable airline psychic skills for hire, please post it here

I did say "documentable"...