There are several reports in the thread of people who have applied more than once, and received the fee waiver each time. I do not think we yet have any reports from people who applied for this specific card and saw the "No Bonus" pop-up. That could be because the pop-up is new, or it could be because American Express does not treat the fee waiver as a bonus.
Amex doesn’t treat the first year fee waiver as a bonus.