YYZ to YVR on a Friday evening, with pods, and you're P25k on almost the lowest fare bucket? I fear your chances are poor at best. Especially as without an EF subscription you're not going to find out if R space gets opened (unless you just check the AC website regularly).
But hey, you never know. If it was me I'd ensure I had a backup plan - a preferred seat. They'll auto waitlist you for PY if the J eUp fails, but that list is processed at the very end, so people aiming for a PY eUp and not J eUp are ahead of you in terms of processing.
As a comparison AC123 tonight is also full with 4 people having cleared into J, and 11 more on the list.