Yes, it is pretty detatched from reality to assume that "many here" would hit it in Q1 - or throughout the year. That bucket is exclusive to pretty much business owners that funnel non-personal spend through their cards. Not to trivialize that bucket - as there are many of them - but it is also not the most common archetype of a business traveler who is more likely to be corporate (or at least not a business owner - and just a self-employed "consultant" type is likely not to have very significant non-travel expenses).

Even if I put all of my travel spend on a Delta Amex card (which I wouldn't because it's a terrible rewards program) that would only net about 100-125K a year. And I doubt many people here are putting 150K in personal spend on their cards. Even among a crowd of affluent folks (which FlyerTalk certainly is), 125K-150K of after-tax non-mortgage, non-auto loan, non-retirement account savings is pretty significant and reflective of 500-750K+ in household income level (of course this could be higher/lower depending on saving proclivities). To hit it in Q1 would imply a $1.5M+ household income.. in which case just paying outright for an F ticket is a pretty trivial expense (if we're talking about upgrade competition).

Of course there are ways to game this via manufactured spend, but that is not exactly common either (and even MS is hard at the 250K level).

TheHorta loves to bring up the need for a higher tier. As someone that would qualify for this proposed "higher tier" (I"ll hit 200K+ MQM this year with well north of 30K spend), I just don't see the value to myself or (especially) Delta for a higher tier - especially when there is already a higher tier (Delta 360) - although admittedly Delta 360 is the worst high tier (UA's GS is far better for example).