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Old Aug 10, 2018, 6:40 pm
  #13  
B3nder
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 231
Originally Posted by milesmilesmiles
From Points Guy

giving you 40,500 bonus points, worth $243.

Does anyone know how the bolded valuation was arrived at? Points in this statement are being valued at 6 cents per point.
First, It's not 6 cents at that valuation. That's 0.6cpp. Which is a very generous overvaluation (IMO). A combination of 3 possibilities why:
1. Assuming that you'll only use points at a super high end property, 95k points (or whatever the now cap on regular room awards is) for $600 a night or more.
2. Being terrible at math. Essentially double-counting the value of the points, as I'll explain on my own valuation below.
3. Intentionally overvaluing because it's a blogger obviously trying to get you excited and click through their site for referrals and read for more ad revenue. Self-interest is to over-value.

I value Honors points currently at 0.4 cents, and that's without applying a penalty for the limits to their utility.
Standard room awards seem to be pretty standardized now on values. Exceptions being the capped out rates where the hotel has not disallowed standard awards on basic rooms (which is common to see now), places with resort fees, or if you would tend to use 5 night stays where one night is free. A 5 night stay could more easily get to the 0.6 cents. Values are also much lower if you did a "premium room reward" if no standard awards are available.

For no particular reason as a sort of random pull I just searched for a 3 day stay Aug 20-23 at 4 random hotels in my city.
points, honors discount, advanced purchase, MVP, cppHigh, cppLow
Hotel 1: 114k, $614.41, $503.82, $501.56, 0.539, 0.440
Hotel 2: 99k, $532.03, $436.26, $542.89, 0.537, 0.441
Hotel 3: 66k, $356.97, $339.13, $291.41, 0.541, 0.442
Hotel 4: 95k, $477.11, $429.40, N/A, 0.502, 0.452
Hotel 5: 102k, $408.46, $347.19, N/A 0.400, 0.340

If you exclude the "worst" of the 5, with the examples I get an average cpp (cents per point) of 0.530 vs "Honors discount" or the more relevant 0.444 cpp vs MVP AAA or Advance Purchase. You can see that this is pretty consistent between all four of them. BUT WAIT. You don't "earn" regular points from the points stays. So, I must subtract the value of the points I would earn if I paid cash from the 0.444 cpp. If I use current base diamond rate with aspire of 44 points per dollar at 0.4 cpp value, that's 17.6%. 0.444 cpp * 0.824 = 0.366 cpp value for this representative example I used. In reality I stockpile points (and lose from the repeated program devaluations), and I have been able to spend them last year for around 4.5cpp (after discounting for the "non-point-earning" of reward stays).


Notes of things I learned in this exercise:
1. Point values have gone down AGAIN since the last I looked. I will probably need to lower my valuation from 0.4cpp...
2. Areas with super-high hotel taxes and hotels with resort fees (which you don't pay when it's all-points redemption) may work out to better point values. Same with 5-night stays and rare properties where the cap points per night is not yet obscene and they don't play games with disabling standard awards on the standard rooms.
3. Hotel 2 is the first time I've seen a MVP rate that's higher than the regular rate (???), strange. Must be a new way to pretend to support the rate yet it's above BAR.... Not related to the valuation, but interesting. I haven't paid attention recently and hadn't noticed removal of the "20% off BAR" verbiage.

Last edited by B3nder; Aug 10, 2018 at 6:48 pm
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