Unless they are bookable/space available upgrades, never take into consideration the operational upgrade potential in choosing the programme or airline, or you leave yourself subject to more disappointment.

Operational upgrades are by and large route and even date/day of the week dependent for a start, and when airlines start using complex decision making tool in determining the upgrade priority, you really are defeated by the tool in any case.

Choose the programme with best earn/burn ratio and if required status earnings and applicability in your situation, and choose the airline for service (scheduling/seat/soft products etc) that suits your needs best, and consider the combination of programme/airline to your best advantage.

For your own comfort, of course, the best policy is only ever book the highest cabin available. No more op-up anxiety then, and you can even moan that the airline never, ever upgrades you