Thanks to promos and a fair bit of flying, and despite my use of BXP1s when I can, I have amassed about 10,000 BE points. Which means that, if I wanted to, I could redeem them for a Flagship Dining adventure on something like DCA-MIA-JFK-LAX-HKG, roundtrip (and there is surprisingly enough availability to make this happen). I'd just be doing it for fun, to spend a couple days in HKG and to go flying because I like to fly.

Which raises the question whether spending 10,000 points on an F rt is a "worse" use of points than saving them for BXP1 (and maybe BXP3) redemptions. So I did some math to see how I'd value the points at each redemption level:

15 x BXP1 (650 each, 9750 points). Ordinarily a BXP1 replaces a 15k + $75 upgrade award. Let's say I value miles at 1.8 cents each, that's $270 + $75 = $345, times 15 = $5,175. Caveats = I might not have occasion to use 15 BXP1s (but my earliest expiring points are 12/31/2019, so who knows); BXP1s require higher fare buckets and are only good for one segment (but I typically use them on J-->F transcons, so that doesn't matter). The $345 valuation seems a bit high... I'd certainly pay this to go Y-->J on a transcon or to confirm various other "important" upgrades, but only rarely would I pay $345 for J-->F on a transcon. I would peg the value of a BXP1, subjectively, at around $250 for me. But I'll stick with $345 (and $5,175 total) for the purpose of comparison.

or

3 x BXP3 (3100 each, 9300 points) + 1 x BXP1. Ordinarily a BXP3 replaces an SWU or a 25k + $350 upgrade award, so $800 per my valuation (which seems about right, I'd usually pay $800 cash for an upgrade subject to the same terms as an SWU is). So $800 x 3 = $2400, plus $345 = $2775. Clearly, I don't value BXP3s as being worth effectively 5 times a BXP1. Which probably explains why I've never redeemed for one!

or

1 x BX7C (10,000 points). This replaces two 110,000-mile US-Asia 2 F awards, so 220,000 * .018 = $3,960 per my valuation (which again seems about right). This is obviously more than my BXP3 valuation but less than my BXP1 valuation.

Despite the above math, I'm still inclined to redeem for the BX7C because of (1) the appeal of taking the fun trip, (2) the fact that I don't personally value the one-segment upgrade at $345, (3) holding onto 10,000 points seems like begging to incur devaluation risk--I'm much more inclined to earn and burn generally, especially when future travel plans are uncertain (who knows whether my schedule will continue to allow impromptu trips to HKG), and (4) I don't have a foreseeable use for 15 BXP1s (nor is there any other redemption that I would find more valuable, I don't think).

Anyone think I'm missing something?