Originally Posted by
764toHI
I'm sure someone ran a NPV analysis and determined it was more prudent to convert the order to MAXes (and I'm sure Boeing gave UA a good deal).
Don't forget about the A319s - UA probably figured they could get these aircraft on property sooner than the 73Gs at a lower acquisition price.
Exactly... new management team comes in and decides it's not an effective use of capital, so the order is converted to the MAX and the capex can is kicked farther down the road. 73G is a nice airplane, but there's a reason orders for new-builds dried up over the last few years and comparatively few MAX7s will be delivered... the -8/00 can perform virtually all missions with similar trip costs and greater revenue potential with better residuals. Meanwhile, aircraft like early-2000s A319s are coming off lease around the world and manufacturers are eager to secure new orders to fund ambitious production rates, so financing is equally aggressive. No matter what, a 12-year-old A319 is going to cost substantially less to acquire than a new-build 737-700, and that makes Wall Street happy. Big capacity increase plans coupled with financing for a large order of factory-fresh expansion airplanes would throw the markets into a panic.
This is a slightly different scenario from the 77W, for which Boeing is not presently building a direct replacement and can be expected to retain more value toward end of service life. An analogue would be if United were to place an order a year or two ago for the 777-200ER/LR. Sure, it's a capable airframe in its own right, and compatible with the existing fleet, but can never be expected to fetch more than scrap value as residual. In the meantime, during service, they would never generate the cash flow of the larger, marginally more expensive frame.