Originally Posted by
matrixwalker2012
Even an EXP can also have 0 EQDs if they had to take some big trips early this year, and then hibernate till mid next year, then at that point, their rolling EQDs go to 0 while still holding EXP status.
Not that hard to fathom as it's possible to hit EXP with just a handful of segments.
The inverse is also true. Someone who earns EXP by flying loads in November and December and then flies not at all from January onwards would have a current year EQD of 0 and this would have no relevance in the upgrade process (their EXP status would come first and the rolling EQD comes second). But, but Dec 31 their rolling EQD and their current EQD are bound to align (closely - overnight flights on Dec 31/Jan 1 may make some small differences).
But this is all a digression. The laws of probability mean that there will be occasions where a tie-breaker is needed after EQDs. Attempts to estimate the probability of that though will founder on the fact that there are no straightforward ways to estimate the distribution of EQD scores for any given status group.