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Old Jul 14, 2018, 9:07 am
  #37  
SeattleDavid
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Gatwick, UK
Programs: UA *G, BA Silver
Posts: 1,673
Originally Posted by Dave Noble
I am not sure why they would be equal on Jan 1 and divergent on Dec 31

On Jan 1 , the current year EQDs towards retaining/attaining status will be zero , but the 12 month rolling period will cover all ( or from Jan 2 ) of the previous year

On Dec 31, the current year EQDs towards retaining/attaining status will be the same as the 12 month rolling period ( or almost the same if Dec 31 of previous year is also counted )
What you say is correct, but it is not actually relevant – current year EQDs do not play into either the upgrade process or my current status. What I was saying would be equal on Jan 1 are the last calendar year's EQDs (that determined your status) and your rolling 12-month EQDs (that determine upgrade tiebreaks).

But actually, current year EQDs do play into it in some way – since status can also be determined by those (one can go up but not down in status during the year). Of course, the month of January is a further anomaly since status then can be determined by either of the two previous calendar years.

But in general the key point is that the range of values for the 12-month rolling EQDs for PLTs can be from 0 to somewhere pretty high (15000 or even 16000 probably), and certainly not evenly distributed over that range.

[I think I'm reasoning correctly through here - as a former applied statistician - but with these kinds of real-world applied maths problems it is very easy to be led astray.]
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