If AS are much harder for you and they will fufill your needs for award travel, I would still lean towards option four.
I ordered a Cat 8 TP today and attached it to the Sydney Harbour Marriott Hotel at Circular Quay for the third week of February. The 7 night stay is currently available with a Long Term Stay Rate that can be cancelled up to the day before @ A$419 per night. 7 nights = A$2,933. At today's rate, that is $2,187.82 USD They also advised that my 120K AS miles will post within 3 days.
I had already booked flights from LAX-HKG//HKG-BNE in J with a three day stopover in Hong Kong for 60K AS which includes YLW-SEA-LAX the day before in Y/F. Fees were about $100 USD. The cost for a revenue ticket on the same route and days is $5,417.71. My partner is getting the F award seat this time.
I had also already booked flights from HND-SFO-SEA-YLW on JL for our return in March. We are both in F, however, the cost for a revenue ticket for a J seat on the same route and dates is $5,457.81 and requires 60K as Miles.
The Cat 8 TP was 360K. I have a week long stay in Sydney and will get 120K AS miles to replenish the ones I used. The value of my package is $13,063.34 or 3.63 cents/point. Valuation is subjective. I would never pay out-of pocket for the experience but maximizing the porential of my loyalty programs is kind of a hobby. I would, however, still take the trip but would be happy flying Y and staying at a cheaper hotel. Those costs would be significantly less. You have to also consider the cost of flights & stays to attain Status and accumulate the miles/points. The real value is somewhere in between.
I enjoy flying much more than laying out on a beach drinking $20 Martinis. When I am in a new city I want to explore and sample the local cuisine. The hotel, for me, is a bed to sleep, not the destination of my vacation. If I can have an included breakfast with my loyalty, it is an additional bonus/savings.
After Sydney, we are doing a 9 segment, 4Y, 5J itinerary from SYD to TYO after crossing 5 continents the Pacific & the Atlantic Ocean.
As part of that Itinerary we will be stopping in Tahiti for an 8 day Tahitian Cruise after which I have booked two nights at the St. Regis Bora Bora. Two days is perfect. I wouldn't want to be there a week. Base rate is $767 USD a night for a 2700 sq/ft Villa with a private pool. It is a splurge, but there are so many other places to visit, I not sure when I will get back to Tahiti. It will be a nice end to the cruise before we head out for Easter Island.
While the opportunity to book some top properties for a maximum of 60K per night in the transition period is enticing, premium properties come with premium pricing and are more costly to get to. Some are isolated and once you are there, you are pretty much at the mercy of the property for overpriced food & beverage offerings.
In my case, the two nights at the St. Regis in Bora Bora requires a $500 return flight, (50 minute flight in each way) per person, from PPT and a $135 per person boat ride from/to the airport. If you decide to eat all your meals there, you are looking at $150-$200 per couple per meal depending on beverages. Your room rate is only a portion of the total costs so you need to consider everything together to see if that redemption works for you.
For me, I will save the 120K MR points and pay the rate for the two nights. You may think I am crazy, which I am!
However, consider that post loyalty program merger, the same 60K miles per night will convert to 25K Airline Miles. A two-night stay would be 50K Airline Miles. While my outlay will be about $1800 USD, I would have lost opportunity in airline award potential that could save significantly more. In the AS program you could get CX J NA-SE Asia for 50K. LAX/SFO/ORD/EWR/JFK-HKG-BKK for same dates is $40×× - $47××. Alternatively, you could get JL Japan-DEL return in J for 50K while an out of pocket fare would be $46××.
Certainly you could get quite a few free nights on lower category SPG properties and mazimize them by booking properties that will be increasing in the New Program, but you still need to get there!
James