PumpkinSmasher

Was looking for some advice ahead of all of the changes come August, especially considering what looks like mostly negative changes to the Marriott Air/Hotel packages. Below are the particulars and considerations.

Travel goals: Hoping to go to Australia (via Dubai) in next 12 months. Hoping to also go somewhere in Europe on a different trip. Hoping to do at least biz class on all legs (I do have points/miles in other programs as well so certainly not thinking this redemption alone will get me everything I need). I'm definitely not oblivious to hotel nights/stays by any means as I think I could use them, especially the higher tier ones, but the airline miles are more important to me for sure. No matter what route I go, I think it's very unlikely I'll have booked (and redeemed) any sort of 7 night stay by the end of this month.

As for the 420K Marriott points, here are the scenarios I'm considering:

Option 1: Use them as 140K SPG points, which would be convertible to 175K miles for a future redemption.
Option 2: Use them now for an Air/Hotel package with 120K miles for Alaska and a Tier 1-3 package.
Option 3: Use them now for an Air/Hotel package with 120K miles for Alaska and a Cat 1-5 package (270K points), leaving me with 50K SPG points towards a future flight (really 60K with xfer bonus).
Option 4: Use them now for an Air/Hotel package with 120K miles for Alaska and a Cat 1-5 package (270K points) + buy enough SPG points (currently discounted by 35%) to make up the difference to buy a second Air/Hotel package with an additional 120K miles for Alaska and another Cat 1-5 package giving me 240K Alaska miles and 2 Cat 1-5 7 night stays (approximate out of pocket cost -- $900).

Obviously, there is a ton of speculation about what will happen with the 7 day certs come August with most thinking they will be cancelled and converted to points and credited back. Most also seem to think that the conversion to points won't be generous either. I'm willing to gamble on the hotel portion. I'm happy to hope for the best but expect the worst. There is risk with the miles too of course. Alaska could devalue at any moment too and some seem to think one is coming sooner rather than later. I could also put them into United with the 10% bonus, although that limits travel options but is probably safe on the devaluation front for now.

I currently lean towards option 2 or 4 from above. Option 2 is appealing because I would for sure use the stay at some point if the value stays the same and if it doesn't, the points return should be at least okay. Also no out of pocket costs. Option 4 is also appealing because 240K Alaska miles could go a fairly long way. Plus I assume that the hotel points back should also be okay in that scenario. $900 out of pocket though is not nothing, but it's still not a lot of money for what the potential return could be.

Anyway, just curious what others think and what you would do in my shoes and what you think represents the best value, given that there is some uncertainty and that no official plan is in place just yet for my travel goals.