Thanks, CPMaverick. This basically confirms what I'd suspected.

Easy immigration experience is very good. I'm really trying to avoid LAX, as you suggest.

Positive review of the HNL-IAD 767 is also helpful. I've booked that ticket, and it is 100% refundable.

The only remaining issue is that the SYD-HNL flights are not refundable (HA doesn't seem to sell refundable J tickets often), and the prices are spiked.

QF J is another option, Air New Zealand is backup. Jetstar J seem like a subpar option.