Originally Posted by
Often1
I would not depend on where the plane is based for anything this far in advance.
While in general that is true, this is Ryanair we are talking about. They don't have the same slack in the system that other airlines may have; planes at EVERY base have a full flying schedule and challenging block- and turnaround times.
Ryanair shows no hesitation in closing down bases, or moving planes away from a base, in response to actions that it sees as damaging to its business (and to create headlines, and "penalise" airport/authority decisions it dislikes). But the sort of day-to-day "let's move this plane from STN to DUB today; let's move this plane from CRL to CGN for tomorrow afternoon", etc, doesn't happen on a day-to-day basis in the manner suggested.
Ryanair will not be able to "ease" disruption for its Irish strike by re-directing crews and/or planes from other bases to carry out flights that can't be operated from its Irish bases; those crews and/or planes are required where they were scheduled to operate; that would involve the cancellation of services in other countries where the "strike" excuse won't get them off the hook [cancelling a Belgium to Germany flight, for example, because of a strike in Dublin simply won't get them off paying compensation to those Belgian and German passengers; whereas the customers that were due to fly to/from Ireland can't expect that compensation anyway. So why fly them that day when it is less of a financial burden on the company to leave the strike-affected customers thus affected, rather than affecting a different set of passengers, with higher recovery costs, to "rescue" the passengers that are, basically, screwed anyway? Bad commercial decision there!].
Remember that Ryanair's most recent load factor is running at around 96%, so it's not as if there are routes/bases operating with such few numbers that it would be tempting for Ryanair to cancel their day's flying and temporarily base them in Dublin just for that day.
And, besides, the now unionised pilots in other bases would probably resist this "strike breaking" in support of their Irish colleagues. They will doubtless be considering their own strike action in the near future, too.