Happy

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Before you are yelling Not True, you need to read more carefully. I never say CX zeroed out availability since 9 months out. I said the availability has drastically reduced since 9 months out. Drastically reduced is NOT Zeroed out, but is definitely a very noticeable reduction from before when one routinely sees 5J or even 7J, no number attached J (wide open cabin) showing on BA site. That was how CX used to be, from experiences of years of using AA and later AS programs.

Talk about booking CX using either AS or AA miles, I dont think you would have booked / flown any more CX award flights than I have done. For the past several years we average 2 to 3 CX trips to Asia, and we used CX to/from JNB 2 times in 2015, 1 time each in 2016 and 2017, plus our favorite usage - EU-HKG flights, and numerous intra-Asia flights, with AA, AS and BA currencies. So I believe I know what I see and how I "feel". What I see and "feel" so far has been depressing.

I can tell you that just 3 years ago I would only decide whether I wanted to go for NY or CNY until 1 to 2 months before the dates and there still plenty of J seats to choose from. Even as late as early 2017 the picking was still far far better than the 9 months leading to June 2018. It has been very tough the past 9 months, especially since the beginning of 2018. It feels so bad that I start to look for alternatives such as BR, NH, or even with Aeroplan, route thru Europe to Asia as possibility instead of fixating on the AS program because we do have some needs to visit HKG. I just hope others who are not familiar enough on the current situation (reality) to think more and with an open mind. 'nuf said.

The complete zero out started 6 to 8 weeks before June 22nd. My last booking on CX award seats was done on March 9th. Picking was slimmer than I thought. We left home for a month long trip starting first week of April. Upon return when I checked the availability and was shocked to see there were no premium cabin seats on many routes, incl the most reliable ZRH-HKG, and HKG-ADL, not to mention the US-HKG routes. A friend needed to change a date on her already booked LAX-HKG flight, and a HKG-ICN flight, she had to stay up at night and tried 3 times, before she was able to find a date that was acceptable, to make a change at the edge of booking window. It has never been this hard in the past. Oh yes, she used up her one shot free change with AS program because the change was done after June 5th.

The availability has NOT returned despite you claimed you have seen those. I posted on the AS CX thread trying to find the availability you claimed was showing for Oct 18, JFK-HKG. They are NOT there between Oct 8th thru Oct 23rd. I am holding a booking on Oct 24th and looking for earlier dates so I only checked what I would need - there were only PE available if there is any availability. Weekends there is no seat for any class. I dont believe the availability is all snatched up by people who are looking if they so available as you claimed. More like a reloading CX did unintentionally based on the old formula but later realized that wasn't what they wanted and pulled the inventory off again.

There is enough discussion on whether AS should be chosen as the miles for the Marriott TP. Enough Pro and Con have been listed out and readers can make their informed decision (or gamble). This also depends on how many miles you have in your various FFP account balances and where you would want to go, with which routing and such.

If one does not have needs for certain program's miles in the next 18 months, there is no reason to pile up when you may have other means to add to your balances. On top of that, study the new chart and you may find some hotels you have good chance to use, may go down in categories. So you dont want to deplete your account just because the TP would devalue. Piling up miles in the account but not use them in time, is a self-inflicted devaluation in a way.