I wanted to add this data point for people who may be in my position.
I was interested in applying for the Chase BA card to get the 75,000 point bonus upon spending $10,000 (I probably won't go for the full 100,000 points).
I was worried about triggering a shut down though. I've had the BA card at least twice before. Maybe three times. I cancel before renewal, wait until 24 months after receiving the bonus, and then I apply again.
I have the Chase Hyatt card, I spend nothing on it each year, just the $75 fee to get the free night certificate.
I also have the legacy IHG select card and two months ago, I was approved for the IHG Premier card.
I also have a Chase Ink business credit card, I only spend $200 a month on it for my cell phone/cable bill to get the 5X points.
So I had three active personal cards and a business card. My online card management portfolio showed a total of 19 Chase cards, so 15 of them had been canceled (churning). 3+ years ago when I had the Chase Sapphire I used it as my primary card, but these days I only out minimum spend or bonused spend on the Chase cards.
Credit score is good, around 800 I think. I have about five other cards from other issuers. I pay off all my cards every month and when I get a new card I almost always call to have the credit limit lowered to $10,000.
Anyway, I was worried about denial and shut down when I applied for this Chase BA card. My online application got the "pending, we'll let you know" message. I was worried that if any human being looked at my history with Chase they would see churning and someone playing the minimum/bonused spend game.
Three days after I applied I saw the newly approved Chase BA card in my online portfolio with an $18,000+ credit line.