Originally Posted by mvoight

Ideally you find the space before you buy the ticket. It is a risk to get the award if the flight has no available upgrades.
Personally, if I am not going to get upgraded, I'd rather pay the lowest fare possible. So, there are 2 risks - 1. Getting an award and not clearing the upgrade list. 2. Paying a higher fare to qualify to use the award and not clearing the upgrade list