A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: MCI
Programs: AA Gold 1MM, AS MVP, UA Silver, WN A-List, Marriott LT Titanium, HH Diamond
Posts: 52,575
Right now, in today's Marriott Rewards, I value a single MR point as 1.2 cents. To hold this value, the 120,000-mile Travel Packages must stay the same *and* there can't be some sort of wholesale category devaluation across the board on August 1.
If both of those hold true, then there's still a decent case to use a credit card that earns 2 points per dollar on general non-bonus spend. That still puts you in the same realm as the good cashback cards, Chase UR, the various ThankYou cards, etc. Keeps you solidly ahead of the HH cards, given that their points are rapidly approaching 0.5 cents with limited upside opportunities.
Structural changes to the Travel Packages are the single biggest risk to Marriott value. Category creep is a distant 2nd. But either one could impact how you value the points and whether earning 2 per dollar is worthwhile.