the new amex card is probably worth having in a vacuum for anyone who spends a lot on marriott/SPG each year, but the value proposition gets murky for me when compared to other alternatives for wallet space, including the marriott cards. i think we need to know more about the differences between a 50k certificate and a 35k certificate, for example, which will continue to be a tough projection to make when the card is initially offered since marriott will have a whole year to screw with valuations / peak vs. off-peak / award availability before any anniversary certificates show up.
the $300 credit offsets all but $50 of the $350 extra AF over the current purple cards, in exchange for the same earnings rate on SPG/marriott spend (2x SPG/6x Marriott) and airfare/dining (1x SPG/3x marriott) but a 33% nerf to non-category spend (1x SPG to .67x SPG). the 50k certificate offsets the $100 extra AF if you do keep the card for a second year, and the value per 50k cert needed to break even goes down each year you renew ($100 per cert at AF
#2 ; $75 at AF
#3 , $67 at AF
#4 ...). but for me the problem is that the vast majority of the value of the ~$100 AF for the SPG cards every year
was the non-category spend. i don't see any value in 1x SPG for air/dining or 0.67x SPG for non-category spend. taking that value proposition out, the 50k certificate break-even point would have to be closer to $150 * 2 = $300 per cert year 1; $225 year 2; $200 year 3...
it's hard to tell how much value there will be at those levels. so i think i need to see what the sign-up bonus looks like. hopefully it at least opens with the 100k bonus from the premier plus, which i think would probably make the card worth getting and then keeping for at least the first two years.