As one who has accumulated affinity points and miles with prejudice (ie I made extreme efforts to collect miles and points, not just by happenstance), for over a decade, more than 10 Million total miles/points across almost every major US domestic airline (except NWA) and about 250K in BA, and several non-airline programs (starwood's spg and AMEX's MR), let me tell you what I've recently concluded:

a) the major airlines are in deep trouble (what else is new, right), and are clearly in defensive mode now across all revenue streams, to now include their affinity programs, and IMO they collectively have NO intention of allowing "fair and reasonable" award redemption any longer. I say again - FAIR AND REASONABLE, as simply compared to my experiences of over a decade-long redemption experience. IMO, they have capitulated on their respective affinity award programs EVER AGAIN existing 1) to reward loyalty, 2) to induce future business, and/or 3) to create *real* affinity for and on behalf of the "the brand", and are now ONLY about incremental revenue and selling future tickets (redemption of which is to be avoided at almost all costs, eg Nonepass) for today income, by means of screwing both their affinity partners and ultimately the affinity collector (we ff would-be travelers). This phemonema of making award redemption essentially futile used to be only applicable Continental's Nonepass (oops, I meant "OnePass"), which was famous years ago for award NON-availability (which I also helped expose several years ago in the Continental threads) and spread to Delta, and then arguably to United, but had not (until Jan, 2004) transitioned to American Airlines, which I once thought would be the last fortress standing with respect to a FAIR AND REASONABLE award redemption policy. Well, sportsfans, mighty fortress AA just fell. Lots to be discussed and debated about AA's milesaaver in a thread I started which argues AAdvantage is morphing into Nonepass at least with respect to domestic 25K 'base level" award redemption availability. AA's trip into this dark ominous valley of betrayal for any aadvantage mile earner thinking in good faith the program really offers FAIR AND REASONABLE access to 25K base level awards...started last summer with the major re-write (AA called it "simplification" for us simpletons) of AA's international award program, and then AA added another chapter circa Jan, 2004, called milesaaver which just gutted their domestic base level award availability. You can read more about it at this URL:
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/showt...ighlight=morph

So, if YOU aren't prepared to have to call multiple times and spend an hour or more on the phone chasing these ghost base level awards (oh, and you really thought your family of five could travel on 25K awards - on the same plane ), and/or prepared to redeem TWICE the decade-long benchmark 25K award which most people believe in GOOD FAITH is available...then you TOO should be looking at alternatives to major airline affinity programs. Stability means zilch if the airlines block us from obtaining awards (except by luck and timing and a lot of calls to your airlines' award center). So, yours truly is essentially abandoning my decade+ strategy of sticking to primarily to major airline award programs. As a lifetime (vested) AA PLATINUM, with over 5MM documented aadvantage miles earned, and a spouse also a lifetime AA PLAT, now together holding about 1.5MM semi-worthless AAdvantage miles, it may seem ludicrous to be abandoning a lifelong effort, but it is the way it is. AA's recent stealth implementation of their fiendish capacity control model called milesaaver just stuck a fork in it for me.

b) alternatives ? several.
/b1 - 3rd party "generic points" programs like Capital One's or USAA's (Eagle Points) look more appealing EVERY DAY. No, pinniped, the sky is not falling for Capital One or USAA, and though the majors may *appear* to have more stability than what you term "home grown programs", the reality is they [majors] are perfectly happy SELLING the miles, but they are now positioned to prevent redemption except at unreasonable ratios and only with unreasonable effort and time expense. So, who cares if the majors' programs are around...they won't let us fairly and reasonable redeem our miles. The trend is ominous and only gets worse year by year, no matter what the AA defenders try to claim in the AA thread. So be it. I have personally used USAA's eagle points program, 2 months ago, and it works wondrously well and offers reasonable to excellent flexibility. I now accumulate about 35,000 eagle points a mo average (for 2004), second only behind my starwood/spg accumulation rate. Citibank/AAdvantage will now, starting 2 mo ago, lose as much as 150,000 a month of my charging business, forever. I have ZERO intention of ever getting back in AAdvantage in an aggressive way until they rescind milesaaver, AND I would still burn my aadvantage balance down before resuming my aadvantage accumulation if they rescinded milesaaver today. IOW pinniped - you fear the sky will fall for these 3rd party generic miles programs...I feel 100% the sky just FELL on the majors' affinity programs, and though the airline may still be standing, their affinity program, as we knew it 2003 and before, are in shambles and represent a mere vestage in terms of what they used to stand for and represent to the affinity customer.
/b2 - starwood's spg program is still a safe haven for point accumulation, and is IMO the ultimate model for flexibility & leverage for the affinity customer. Without debate, starpoints are the most valuable affinity currency which, to date, starwood seems to be protecting. Chapters could be written on why, but I don't have the time to go deeper.
/b3 - not my favorite after years of letting their program become diluted and stale, and after failing to replace ex-partners (NWA, TWA, etc) or bring on new ones (AA, UA), but AMEX's Membership Rewards still is a marginal (but safe) depository of "generic" miles, which can be convered into a strong stable of hotels, or into an ever weakening stable of airlines, on demand. FWIW, SPG embarrasses AMEX's Membership Rewards model, which could have, with a few tweaks, been equal to or superior to MR, but AMEX has been flat-footed for years now (even as well as they've done in some respects), so what else is new ?

So, these are my new goals, in order of priority:
a) accumulate starwood starpoints as a first priority for max leverage and flexibility
b) accumulate "generic" miles via USAA's eagle points as my backup
c) capture any double miles promo when they come along. For example, for the last three months Bank One/UA has had a [targeted] double miles promo, which ended midnight last night (6/30)...let me say I've never seen a 3 months' duration double miles promo...so I suspended USAA/eagle point accumulation, made only light effort for starpoint accumulation, and went crazy collecting UA miles for the past 90 days. Though I believe UA is no saint in the award redemption area either, at least double miles gives gives me a fighting chance to get the awards I want, even if I have to burn double miles.

FWIW, I am no longer bitter about AA's moving the cheese....its all about business, as my efforts going forward will be "all about business" also. AA just lost my preferential business (paid and affinity), and now will have to compete for my dollars, and affinity dollars via Citibank, along with Airtrans and every other brand and pricing web site (orbitz, travelocity, priceline, etc). Odd that AA's "affinity" program just drove me away, for pete's sake. Same thing happened with Continental's "affinity" program a couple of years ago. hhhmmm.

And when certain AA defenders come along and claim I am cross-posting on the award availability issue, they are partly right, because award redemption issues DO in fact cross so many subjects in the affinity world. After all, in this current business and travel industry climate, to successfully redeem your hard-earned miles and points you had better be darn sure you are targeting the right program for the right reason. This thread is about alternative programs, and to understand why a 3rd party generic miles program is superior....requires one to discuss the shortcomings of the majors' programs.

Best of luck as you choose your strategy - for one, I think you will be very happy with USAA's eagle points, though I admit it is a very low-key, little known program.