Originally Posted by
farnorthtrader
I have now seen confirmation in at least two blogs (that were interviewing marriott execs) that the existing certs will track across at their point value on the current chart, so a cat 1-5 cert that allows you up to category 5 (25,000 points/night) now will only allow you up to category 4 (25,000 points per night) after August 1, so a fairly large devaluation.
If I had been thinking logically about it when I first commented, this is pretty much the only way they could do it. Otherwise, you could pick up a cat 7 package now for 330,000 points and stay in any SPG, RC, or Marriott after Aug 1 because they will all have to be in cat 7 or lower. That would allow you to stay in a top RC that would currently cost 420,000 points or a top StR that would currently cost 630,000 equivalent points for a week, so you would get to stay in these places for less than the point cost (nearly half as much in a few cases) and get 120,000 airline miles as a bonus. There was no way they were going to let that happen.
A tier 4-5 package, at 540,000, will get you into any hotel after August 1 (but before Dec 31), which is a good deal compared to the price now for the top SPG properties (save 90,000 points plus get the miles), but after August 1, those will only cost 360,000 for a week instead of 630,000, so even that is not a good deal.
They seem to have sewn up the travel packages pretty tight. I don't see a way to game them at this point.
I guess the key will be whether or not the hotels will remain at the current categories, or track with their previous levels (ie Category 5 dropping to Category 4) and whether or not they are converting them to category level or total point certificates (which mentioned elsewhere would be valuable if you end up booking at a lower category hotel). I am eyeing a category 4 property for a package (I know not the most profitable way to use it, but the hotel is new and nice and in a location we want to go to). I am trying to decide if it is worth redeeming now for the package and maybe get some benefit (the 7 night certificate gets converted to total points which would be 25K * 6 and the category 4 hotel goes from 20K /night down to 17,500 since there will be no 20K level anymore) when the conversion happens, or just waiting for the shoe to drop.