So I was going through the math, and I'm pretty certain there will be a significant devaluation of the travel packages (shocking, I know). The following math is with assuming that Marriott holds true to their word, and most current Cat 5s become Cat 4s or lower under the new program.
If we take a test case of a 100k airline mile transfer (excluding United), this will cost a minimum of 240k MR points under the new program (4x60k MR becoming 4x20k miles, plus 4x5k bonuses). Currently, the Cat 1-5 + 100k Mile package costs 250k MR. Paying 10k for a 7-night stay on top of the transfer just seems too good of a deal.
Yes, I am aware that the current travel packages are actually a discount over the direct MR-> mile transfers, in which the above case would cost a minimum of 280k MR. However, these mile transfers will become a bigger deal to the new program, considering how central it is to many SPG members.
Futhermore, consider that the current SPG Nights + Flights costs 60k Starpoints (180k MR) for a Cat 3 (roughly similar to a Marriott Cat 5), and that only nets you 50k airline miles and 5 nights. You could add the remaining 50k airline miles for a grand total of 100k Starpoints (300k MR).
If I had to guess, I would say that the Cat 1-5 (well Cat 1-4 under the new program) + 100k TP will go up by 50k (20%).