I guess what I should have said in the thread title: was it a mistake for Marriott to start out with this generous exchange rate? Regardless of what people say now, the 1:3 exchange rate wasn't expected at the time (read the threads), and was generally received as a positive surprise. On Marriott's end it was clearly a political decision -- they opted to show goodwill to SPG members.

The problem is that this decision may now backfire:

- Redemption costs in many locations are out of whack, with many middling SPG properties costing as much as top Marriott properties, and top SPG properties costing more than any Marriott property. We can argue about differences in benefits and whatnot, but at some point, the programs will have to be merged, and it's not sustainable to have lots of locations where Marriott properties cost 1/3 less than comparable SPG ones. We already saw a round of category adjustments last month where Marriott properties went through a bloodbath. To bring the programs in line, there will either have to be further drastic increases on the Marriott side (which likely will not be received well by Marriott members), or reductions on the Starwood side (unlikely).
- Bonus points earning (Plat bonus and promotions) feels minimal compared to SPG. Is there any SPG Plat who's excited about a 166 Starpoint welcome bonus, 166 Starpoint MAGC, or the current 250 Starpoint/night promo?

The 1:3 conversion calmed initial fears of Starwood members, and helped avoid the exodus we would have seen if a 1:2 conversion rate had been implemented. But in the long run, Marriott may have shot itself in the foot. Both Marriott members and SPG members are bound to be disappointed going forward -- and these problems could have been avoided almost completely with a 1:2 conversion rate.