I'm looking to fly to CX F to HKG from either JFK or ORD with a companion but know that CX doesn't open 2 F seats on the same flight at the beginning of the schedule anymore. So, we figured we'd book separately and hope to change at the last minute to be on the last flight.

Does anyone have experience on which of these flights might have the best chance to have an extra seat open up at the last minute that Alaska has access to? I've looked a little bit and there seems to be no pattern to it as far as I can tell.

Right now we're looking at CX807 and CX831 which leave from ORD and JFK respectively but get into HKG within an hour or so of each other, which would be convenient even if we couldn't fly together, unless someone has experience that suggests another option might be preferred.