1:3 is about right in terms of $/pt value. But SPG had pretty generous earning potential, bonuses and elite benefits due to the lower number of hotels in the program. So you had a lot of elites with stockpiled points, worried about devaluation when the programs merged, who also discovered the bargains in the marriott chart. Marriott is seeing a spike redemption CPM and adjusting hotels to match. I imagine once stockpiled points have been burned out of the system things will stabilize a little.

I've been burned by program devaluations in the past, so I'm spending my stockpiled points. I've used about 100k spg points in the past year and plan on burning another 150k this coming year.