Originally Posted by
littlewinglet
It's really $200 for $10k points, since you could have done the same MS on a 2x card, or even better on 3x Discover promo. I've never seen hotel redemptions come even close to 1-1.5x unless you really think the overpriced US chains are worth their asking prices. I suppose it could be worth it for the miles transfer, as you earn 1.25x but even then, with award availability lately and rising award charts, it's hard to jusitfy.
Actually it is NET $100 for 10K pts because in order to compare apple to apple, you should use the NET "return" on your CB after subtracting the cost, when I am only using the cost without adding the additional value which often is far more than 100% more. More like 200 to 300% more than the cost.
It is very YMMV - all depends on how you travel, where you travel. One chooses what works best for own situation.
Our hotel redemption routinely come in doubling and more than the cost of the points Sometimes we get 3x or more of the cost to acquire those pts. It works for the trips we take. 2x CB never comes close.
For expensive properties, any Marriott hotels in London is Cat 9 at 45K pts and routinely costs 400+ GBPs. 45K is 15K SPG which cost $150 for a $600 a night hotel, before taxes. London hotel taxes are very high fyi,
For low level properties, Proteas in South Africa ranging from Cat 1 to Cat 5 but many of them are at Cat 2, 7.5K - that is 2.5K SPG which cost $25. Hotels often are at $100 to $150 range.
You can do the math yourself for the above examples on how 2x CB would fare.
Here is another example that is closer to "home" in North America. We used Springhill at Kalispell MT twice last Sept when we visited Glacier NP area. It was a 10K Marriott property then. that translated to 3.4K SPG pts or $34. The cheapest prepaid rates even in Sept was $200 and up. You can do the math there too and compare the CB card.
Dont forget that point redemption does not pay taxes other than small city taxes, nor service fees. Cash payment, even point + cash, the cash portion, would incur taxes which often is 10 to 15% or more.
Let's also talk about the Marriott TP - we redeemed a Cat 6 package for 120K AS miles and a 7 nights Cat 6 Cert in late 2015. 300K equal to 100K SPG equal to $1K. 120K AS miles gets you a round trip business class on CX via HKG with a stopover both ways if you prefer. Or if you find a QF itinerary it is only 100K r/t and one could either do a stopover both directions inside Australia, at New Zealand, or a stop at LAX then head for MEX a few months later and end your trip there (a friend just did this redemption last month). And you still have a 7 nights cert you can use. We used ours at Marriott SkyCity in Jan 2017. Hotel rate was around $250 a night.
So we are talking about a $1000 cost would get you a round trip ticket to down under in business class plus a 7 nights hotel stay. I dont believe you could fund that with a 2x card on $`100K spend, even you get $2K out of it.
You may have seen a commonality now - that is, the 1 to 3 ratio is a great arbitration tool that no CB would ever comes close. Once that inequality is eliminated, then we would have to evaluate the situation again.