IME, the emails have been more consistent for CPUs for the last little while...maybe for the last 1-2 years. Prior to that, sometimes I got them, sometimes I didn't.

That said, the last year or so especially upgrades have been tough, especially in advance. Just dropped to silver this month. Was gold last year, but typically travel in a party of 3 (wife, was also gold, and toddler, no status). There was a huge change when we went to having 3 seats instead of 2, though that's pretty much in line with expectations. At silver, even typically traveling on more leisure routes and mostly non-peak times, I expect my days of upgrades are pretty much over.