Originally Posted by
dayone
Count me among the skeptics. AS conducted an extensive analysis and review of F seats after acquiring VX. This included focus groups and interviews. The choice of the new F seats was rigorous and deliberate. It seems counterintuitive that a new product would be added less than a year later.
Didn't the last analyst call have AS execs admitting that RASM on ex-Virgin routes is diving off of a cliff? I wonder if their analysis assumed that wasn't going to happen. I suspect VX RASM was never too hot anyways (otherwise it wouldn't have taken years to make profits and the owners wouldn't have cashed out for 2.6 very large), but I can see how "we're removing all traces of the airline you liked and delivering cheaper for us but less nice things to you" isn't necessarily a way to get a revenue premium, especially in two markets (SFO and LAX) where a premium transcon product in certain markets is table stakes (unless you're WN, and frankly AS can't scale up in CA to be competitive with WN in their bread and butter, high frequency, short/midhaul network anytime soon).
I'd rather airlines admit mistakes than Smisek their way down the wrong path for years (that is, if this IS what's happening... it's unclear to me how much AS has rolled out their "we give you suckier F than the other guys but it's cheaper" model, and, like I said, it's all speculation until we hear from AS execs this is real). Time will indeed tell and this all may be blowing smoke. But I could SEE how this could happen.
Originally Posted by
dayone
For a sub-fleet to make operational and economic sense, it has to be at least a certain size. I don't know what the number is, maybe 12-16? What plane will be used? A321? MAX 9? Both these planes are being delivered now or will be soon. Since seat choice requires significant lead time, changing to a new product would presumably require replacing already-new seats.
If they have options on up to 30 A321s plus 10 firm, there's your subfleet right there. The CASM should be better than the current A320 VX fleet. I would imagine they could configure the fleet to be attractive to someone else if they decided "naaah" and returned the planes to the lessor.