Early Jan heavy loads are more relevant for HKG-America rather than the other way round, I presume.

I'd go with EWR as much as the 359 sucks with the beds falling apart and everything else peeling off (think about it, if it's that bad, at least you get some miles back!) - it's still a smooth ride back to HK.

888/9 operates with F for a reason, not to op up pax from J...so I personally wont count on it happening. And you risk based crew. I wouldn't do it!

Although I must say the JFK lounge situation is now miles and leagues ahead of EWR. But I'd still opt for the nonstop especially if there's an onward connection. How about waitlisting for 845 too?