Originally Posted by
spin88
thanks for all of the extra detail, very interesting on the third tank (from 47K gallons to 53K gallons of fuel) not being ordered by any airline.
Don't quote me on that but like i said I don't think anyone went for it.
Originally Posted by
spin88
The 777-8 does not arrive until 2021. That is three-four years after entry into service of the 359ULR.
for DL that is meaningless. The 777 fleet isn't going anywhere any time soon. If DL ordered a 77X it would be for a 77L replacement which is 15 years down the road.
Originally Posted by
spin88
The projected range (8690nm) is shorter,
The A359ULR trades payload for range. The A359ULR with 9,700nm airplane you are thinking about is going to be a SQ airplane with all business class seating. Something that is very questionable that it will make money and definitely something DL isn't going to do. SQ is going to put ~170 seats in its 359ULR, or ~140 seats less than DL's configuration.
The 778 has the 8690nm of range will be with a normal passenger configuration.
Originally Posted by
spin88
and the plane is much bigger (it is 20' longer than a 772, and 13' shorter than a 77W), think seating approx 356 vs. the 234 on DL's A359.
an airline like DL isn't going to go with an all C class layout. It makes no sense and is completely against the way DL operates.
Also DL's has 306 seats on the A359
Originally Posted by
spin88
The 777-8 is also likely to have compromised fuel burn as a shrink (think 358, 788, 762, now 772)
but again can carry more people farther than a A359. If it is full it is going to beat the A359 on CASM. Also the A359 is probably going to have worse fuel burn numbers than the A35J, thats generally how it works unless its the biggest plane in the family.
Originally Posted by
spin88
and e.g. LH which ordered the shorter range 779 said it would have similar per/seat performance to the A359 and notably did not order the 778. The orders to date (53 -8, 273 -9) are not indicating a lot of faith in the performance of the -8 model, with carriers with ULR flights (CX, SQ, ANA skipping the -8 version in favor of the -9 version).
LH and everyone else is going 779 because they don't need the legs of a 778. I can turn that around on you, the 778 has more orders than the A359ULR. IIRC by a large margin.
Matter of fact I am pretty sure the ULR has a total of 7 orders right now. All are from SQ.
Originally Posted by
spin88
Look, Boeing was trying to fill a whole in its line up, but I don't think the economics are there, and I especially don't think that a very large (seating 356 or so) aircraft will work on ULR. You need higher value O/D traffic to support the higher costs of these types of fights, and I don't think an airline - any airline - can fill up this large of an aircraft without a lot of discounted connecting traffic. So far only the ME3 have bought it, and my guess is that they are ultimately the only airlines that buy it, with all others, outside of "fleet commonality" purchases going with the much smaller A359ULR
DL could use the capacity on routes like ATL-JNB and LAX-SYD. (realistic routes they would operate them on)
Pipe dreams like ATL-SYD or JFK-SIN are not happening on DL unless fuel gets to $10-$20 per barrel. Even then it is a questionable idea.
You need to stop looking for DL to use up every bit of range for prestige routes like SQ is going to do. For the most part DL doesn't overfly a bunch of hubs on long international routes, that isn't going to change.
The 778 (or 280t 359, or 789 or the 77L now) aren't going to be used where range is pushed to the limit. They will be used on routes where something currently in the fleet can probably operate it but the hight ranged aircraft can operate it better and bring more cargo (plus full PAX + bags)
Hell I personally don't believe DL is going to get into the non-stop SIN game anytime soon. If they do it sure as hell wont be from anywhere but the west coast. (LAX or SEA are the only options)
Originally Posted by
spin88
The 359ULR is actually just a MTOW weight increase (I think 5T), allowing full tanks, and will likely be flown in configurations with slightly less seats.
Its a MTOW increase to 280t, some changes to the fuel system (little bit higher flow rate IIRC) and as i said above the biggest thing is a much less dense configuration.
FWIW Airbus is going to offer regular 280t A359s and i fully expect DL to get them when they pick up the next 10 in the early 2020s.
Originally Posted by
spin88
Do I expect it to sell 300 frames? No. But I do think its commonality with the A359 will help drive some sales of both planes, and help cement some Airbus sales. I just think the 778 is too big for the ULR missions it is projected for, but with that extra capacity will have too high of fuel burn on the much larger group of shorter range flights (think 5500-6500 sm flights) that airlines need planes for.
Which is why the 778 will sell like the 77L. Maybe 100 at very best and if someone like DL orders them we are talking 10-15 tops.
But the 359ULR will struggle hard to get to 20 frames.
FWIW the 778's real job in life is going to be the next 777F. It also cost Boeing very little extra to make and made the ME3 happy.
Originally Posted by
spin88
The result is that Boeing is likely to end up with a whole in its line up between the shorter range B787-10 and the very much bigger 779.
You mean like for years when they had the 763s (and technically 764) and 77W? Or hell even now when it is the 789 and 77W?
aka Boeings most profitable times ever.......
I think they will be more than happy with that.
Boeings problem isn't the gap between 78J and 777X, Boeings problem is the A321NEO and something that can actually replace the large 767 fleets of the world. This is exactly where they will focus, the issue for them right now is engine technology in the 40-60K thrust ball park are few and far between, and will be till Rolls gets the UltraFan ready and Pratt gets its crap together on the current GTFs.