Let's please get this straight. I am not suggesting that AA has made any change in sticker UPG's, nor that fare basis is the only factor. However, let's examine the evidence. First, there is the OP's experience of missing 5 UPG's on low fares. Second, there is a JFK-SFO I was not scheduled to be on, having just gotten off the SFO-JFK redeye. I wait listed for a coach seat on an earlier flight. I went to the gate when it opened and was given a confirmed coach seat on the earlier flight. I was also wait listed for the EXP UPG. So my "time" factor was probably the lowest. My fare was above the lowest, as it was the special one way SFO-JFK fares in May. There were other EXP's waiting for the UPG. They missed and I got it. We had equal status, they had "time" of request on their side. I don't know what their fare basis was, only that the GA told me that I would not get the FC seat available as she was rolling a J pax, with a higher fare basis, into FC and I would get a "sticker" UPG to C. Third, if AA is using fare basis for one purpose, i.e. rolling pax up in class or for op up's, that information must already be readily accessible in the computer system. Do you really think they can not organize that database by that factor, or that they require the GA to go through possibly hundreds of pax records and do it the hard way? Who is to say that it is not used for sticker UPG's, especially when they occur at the gate. Especially, when a GA tells you she is using that information.

Please tell me what the third tiebreaker is? It wasn't my pleasant smile and disposition, as I had just come off an extremely rough ride from SFO waking me out of a sound sleep. My last name starts with an 'A,' but it can't be that easy, otherwise I would have gotten it on a DFW-SFO segment that didn't clear. Clearly, the other postings in this thread are not clearly dispositive of the factors. Many had low fares, another an EXP pax that was dressed nicely but no concrete evidence.

We ignore logic and the rules of evidence to our peril. The other factor I learned early on in my litigation practice, was that so called experts and their opinions are suspect where they rely upon illogical assumptions and disregard the facts.

I have learned a great deal from FlyerTalk in the past 13 months that I have participated here. None of that is in any way attributeable to jonNYC's posts, which I have carefully followed, finding them, generally, lacking in examples, fact and substance. It's like the "expert" who attempts to rely upon a past reputation, which at one time may have been sterling or viable, but who nows relies upon his little "edicts" (sic) without reason and factual basis. Again, ignoring logic.

Unlike some other FT members, I have no hidden agenda nor need to stoke an ego. My purpose is merely to get to the truth and reasons for the events we see and experience and to better understand how to make travel experiences better and more profitable. If something from my experiences can be helpful, so much better. I spend a great deal of time on FT and, recently, in get togethers and DO's, as I have found that most FT members are intelligent, social and personable individuals. One thing I have learned from jonNYC is that there are always antisocial, annoying individuals in every online forum, who come across as lacking in social skills and proper behavior, as if they are screaming out for the attention they are missing from family and friends, assuming they have any.

Let's just stick to the facts. It doesn't matter to me what the other factors are, so long as I am not missing UPG's on the few domestic flights I take. I, too, act the part of the thrifty Scot and always try to pay the lowest fares possible. The only other times I remember purposely paying more, was for EUR03 and FLY04 bonuses. Could be that AA was trying to condition us in those instances to spend more for better seating, especially now that traffic seems to be up and flights appear more full. At least the ones I have been on.

Of course, that's just my opinion, I could be wrong.