FWIW, there have only been 3 instances out of 24 where I did not get a complimentary EXP upgrade on a flight post-3/18. One was a late Tuesday afternoon DFW-MCO 757 where they held (I'm not kidding) 15 F seats out of 22 until they were in airport control. I never did figure that one out, though I did ask the EXP desk to petition yield mgmt about an upgrade 48 hours out, it was denied. F went out full; I just figured the force wasn't with me that day and blew it off rather than get pissed or suspicious.

The second "failed" upgrade came on a DFW-SEA Sunday afternoon flight where virtually every F seat between the 2 cities was gone 48 hours before the flight(s), from morning until late evening. I watched the seats go from 7 to 5 to 3 and 0 several days ahead of my flight; this ticket was also a very cheap SEA-DFW-BNA run booked weeks in advance.

The last instance came on a 6/14 afternoon MIA-DFW 777 flight, which I believe is an EZE continuation flight; domestically, it's a 3 class sold as two, so I got to sit in 10B with Y service, which I thought was great (it's the big seat I really want!). Only 12 F seats on that bad boy anyway (someday, I'm actually going to "sit" in front on a 777 if it kills me).

I am beginning to believe that there are some companies that are ponying up YUP fares and/or burning at-time-of-booking redemptive upgrades as well as paying the F fares now that they've been significantly reduced in many major markets. I also feel that if an EXP pays a Q fare or higher vs. a lower bucket, he's going to get the jump on the upgrade over the cheapest fare person in some cases. I also think in some cases, non-revs are getting a shot at the front as well; for the sacrifices many of them have made over the past 3 years, and will continue to make, I'm not going to begrudge an AA employee a shot at a premium seat; I just hope it doesn't turn into a UA scenario. After all, I'm not paying for the upgrade either, and I'm sure's hell not entitled to it. It's just nice to be treated like a valued very frequent flying AA customer when it happens, and I appreciate it.

In all cases, my tickets are booked at least 6 weeks in advance, and they're generally the lowest fare bucket available. YMMV.