Originally Posted by rbAA
In March, I received a double UPG on ORD-LHR where I had an M fare with e-VP to confirmed C . I was in The FL and asked the source of this largesse. Reply: A full coach and J section so they were moving up pax based upon fares. Same thing happened on a JFK-SFO last month. I got the last J seat on an EXP UPG of (I believe) a K fare (the special SFO-JFK-SFO OW fares,) and the gate agent walked me to the seat, to move that pax to FC. Asked her on the way if I possibly would get the FC seat. Her reply, the pax in that seat paid a higher fare basis than mine. Very logical behavior. So it can't be merely status and time of request.
Would the examples you relate be considered operational upgrades? Maybe I didn't understand your post correctly. (Or maybe I don't understand op-ups.)
As far as the OP's assertion that EXP upgrades are somehow linked to fare, I can only say that I have not noticed this to be the case. My husband and I are both EXPs. We both travel on only the cheapest fares offered on aa.com. We never purchase less than 14-21 days in advance and frequently purchase 60-90 days ahead. We have received upgrades on every segment we've flown since March 18. (20+ for him / 16 or so for me). I've just been attributing our good luck to the routes we fly. It's just a guess, but I don't think there are many EXPs or full fare F pax on many of our flights.