My prediction is this: BA continues to strive to drive down costs in order to remain competitive and profitable for IAG shareholders. As always, this is a difficult balance between appeasing customers and shareholders alike. Mr. Cruz (and his team) are only doing what the shareholders want him to do; they do not have a personal vendetta against any of us. The BAEC will change with market forces and continue to be a frequent traveller program put in place to reward frequent loyalty to BA. If an earnings based system comes into play the new system will continue to reward the customers that BA wants to keep.....it's nothing more sinister then that. If any changes make you feel devalued (personally or in avios) or if you drop a level or two in the EC, this is your very clear signal that you are not the target audience for BAEC anymore. Like it or not, that's what all this is really about; frequent loyalty will continue to be rewarded by BA to the customers it wants to keep regardless of any changes (good or bad).
My personal prediction is that I will drop down to Gold or possibly Silver from GGL regardless of any changes. The Toronto lounge closure was the last straw for me, and I am now giving most of my J travel business to AC on the YYZ/LHR route. Both the ground and the in-flight experiences at AC are now far superior to BA in J, and I may make a move later this year on the MIA/LHR sectors as well (although I'm not sure to what). Yes, I'm saddened by all of this as I have been scarily loyal to BA for over 40 years and I am also a sizable shareholder in IAG, but unless customers like you and me actually make the changes we discuss and propose on this board instead of just whining about them NOTHING is going to change.