I am thinking about the following, and want to get some feedback.

Currently have Mrs BlueZebra booked on great J Super Saver Awards SFO-MUC-SFO in May. I have been waiting on a Europe J sale for my tickets, but nothing yet. In fact the J fares have gone up considerably the last 10 days or so. I know the winter Europe J sales are sometimes very limited...maybe only for Feb-April, or for certain airports, like FRA or LHR, and sometimes limited from SFO.

So, I am considering just buying a current fare, and if a great sale comes along, buying the lower fare, if it is significantly lower, and eat the $200 penalty, if the savings is significant enough. If I do that, would you buy the cheaper fare when the sale is on, and cancel the higher fare immediately, or wait until the last minute, so the credit is good longer? We fly 3-5 times a year, always in the front, so using the credit isn't a major problem.