The Amex Diamonds aren't going to move the needle. Some already spend $250k, some will get creative and spend $250k, some will give up. But the only thing the number of Diamonds really matters for is domestic upgrades. The quest to sell 80% of First Class seats by 2020 is going to increasingly work against you as the clock moves forward. They're at what, 55% now? So 45% of seats "given away" as upgrades becomes 20% within the next 2-3 years. I doubt the number of Diamonds will get cut in half, so Diamonds two years out will be worse off than Diamonds today even with the Amex Diamonds.